Clarity Campaign Labs (CCL) is a for-profit data analytics and polling company that serves Democratic clients.

As of January 2023, FiveThirtyEight gave Clarity Campaign Labs a “B/C” rating using data from 2012 to 2018s. FiveThirtyEight found that publicly released CCL polling tended to favor Democrats in its predictions compared to outcomes. ¹

Clients

Clarity Campaign Labs’ clients include the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), the Democratic Governors Association (DGA), House Majority PAC, the National Democratic Redistricting PAC, EMILY’s List, President Joe Biden’s presidential campaigns, and the 2020 Georgia Senatorial campaigns of Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Raphael Warnock (D-GA). ^{2 3 4}

In 2022, CCL’s largest clients in the 2022 and 2020 cycles were the DSCC and the DCCC, which combined spent about $1.1 million and $2 million respectively. ⁵

Also in 2022, CCL worked on the unsuccessful U.S. Senatorial campaign of Mandela Barnes (D-WI). ⁶

In 2018, Floridians for a Fair Democracy hired CCL to support its successful campaign to amend the state constitution to grant the franchise to convicted felons who had finished their sentences. ⁷

In 2016, End Citizens United paid CCL almost $170,000 for its services. ⁸

Leadership

Clarity Campaign Labs co-founder and managing director of analytics Dan Castleman started his career at America Votes, a Democrat-aligned lobbying and advocacy group. From 2007 to 2012, Castleman co-founded and served as director of analytics at ISSI, a nonprofit data analytics group based in Washington, D.C. ^{9 10}

Co-founder and partner David Radloff started his career as a management consultant for PricewaterhouseCoopers and IBM. In 2005, Radloff worked on the gubernatorial campaign of now-U.S. Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA). Later, Radloff was a founding partner of Tinyhorse Solutions, a political technology start-up that created software for campaign volunteers. Radloff worked with Castleman at America Votes and ISSI as director of data and targeting and chief operating officer respectively. ¹¹

Cristina Sinclaire joined CCL in 2018 as senior vice president, and in 2021, became a partner. Sinclaire previously worked as director of client services at Catalist and at the now-defunct New Organizing Institute. She is on the boards of National Public Radio, the Alliance for CHANGE, the Earthward Bound Foundation, Change the Game, and the Center for Tech and Civic Life. ^{12 13 14}

Co-founder Tom Bonier left CCL to lead TargetSmart, another political data analytics company. Prior to CCL, Bonier worked as chief operating officer at the National Committee for an Effective Congress. ¹⁵

John Hagner is mentioned as a CCL partner in articles published in 2017 ¹⁶ and 2019, ¹⁷ and he still lists himself as a partner on his LinkedIn profile, ¹⁸ but he is not on the staff list on CCL’s website as of January 2023. ¹⁹ In 2021, Hagner was the campaign manager for Nan Whaley’s unsuccessful Ohio gubernatorial campaign. Prior to working at CCL, Hagner worked as national field director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2012, director of targeting and data analytics at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2010, and deputy executive director of the Ohio Democratic Party in 2008. ²⁰

CCL Data scientist Gabbi Allen previously worked on the 2018 congressional campaign of former U.S. Rep. Kendra Horn (D-OK) in and her congressional office in 2019. In between, Allen worked as a social media coordinator of Sally’s List, a Democratic-aligned nonprofit that supports female candidates. ²¹

Defense of DNC Data Analytics

In 2017, after her defeat in the presidential election, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) criticized the polling data and analytics services provided to her by the Democratic National Committee as “mediocre to poor, nonexistent, wrong.” ²²

In response, Clarity Campaign Labs co-founder and managing director of analytics Dan Castleman and then-CCL partner John Hagner publicly defended the DNC’s data. Castleman Tweeted, “Real question is who’s feeding Clinton bad info and why??” ²³

1. “Clarity Campaign Labs.” FiveThirtyEight. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/clarity-campaign-labs/.
2. Who We Are.” Clarity Campaign Labs. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.claritycampaigns.com/who-we-are.
3. “Case Studies.” Clarity Campaign Labs. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.claritycampaigns.com/case-studies.
4. “Vendor/Recipient: Clarity Campaign Labs.” Open Secrets. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.opensecrets.org/campaign-expenditures/vendor?cycle=2014&vendor=Clarity+Campaign+Labs&year=2016
5. “Vendor/Recipient: Clarity Campaign Labs.” Open Secrets. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.opensecrets.org/campaign-expenditures/vendor?cycle=2014&vendor=Clarity+Campaign+Labs&year=2016
6. “October 12, 2022.” Mandela Barnes for Wisconsin. October 12, 2022. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://mandelabarnes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/NEW-WI-2022-GENERAL-POLL-RESULTS-MEMO.pdf.
7. “Restoring voting rights to 1.4 million residents.” Clarity Campaign Labs. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.claritycampaigns.com/case-studies/fl-voting-rights.
8. “Vendor/Recipient: Clarity Campaign Labs.” Open Secrets. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.opensecrets.org/campaign-expenditures/vendor?cycle=2014&vendor=Clarity+Campaign+Labs&year=2016.
9. “Daniel Castleman” LinkedIn. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.linkedin.com/in/danielcastleman.
10. “Who We Are.” Clarity Campaign Labs. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.claritycampaigns.com/who-we-are.
11. “Who We Are.” Clarity Campaign Labs. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.claritycampaigns.com/who-we-are.
12. “Who We Are.” Clarity Campaign Labs. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.claritycampaigns.com/who-we-are.
13. “Cristina Sinclaire.” LinkedIn. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.linkedin.com/in/cristinasinclaire.
14. “Meet Our Board of Directors.” Change the Game. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://changethegame.io/meet-our-board/.
15. “Tom Bonier.” Penn Arts and Sciences. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://pores.upenn.edu/people/tom-bonier.
16. Bradner, Eric. “Democrats to Clinton: The DNC’s data was fine – you just used it wrong.” CNN. June 2, 2017. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/02/politics/hillary-clinton-dnc-data-pushback/index.html.
17. “John Hagner.” GBH Forum Network. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://forum-network.org/speakers/hagner-john/.
18. “John Hagner.” LinkedIn. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-hagner-3786b7b4.
19. “Who We Are.” Clarity Campaign Labs. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.claritycampaigns.com/who-we-are.
20. “John Hagner.” LinkedIn. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-hagner-3786b7b4.
21. “Gabbi Allen.” LinkedIn. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.linkedin.com/in/gabbi-allen-774aaa139.
22. Bradner, Eric. “Democrats to Clinton: The DNC’s data was fine – you just used it wrong.” CNN. June 2, 2017. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/02/politics/hillary-clinton-dnc-data-pushback/index.html.
23. Bradner, Eric. “Democrats to Clinton: The DNC’s data was fine – you just used it wrong.” CNN. June 2, 2017. Accessed January 10, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/02/politics/hillary-clinton-dnc-data-pushback/index.html.