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Open Labs LLC

Type:

Research and Data Firm
Status:

Research Arm, Future Forward USA Action
Program Director:

Aaron Strauss

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Open Labs LLC is the Democratic Party-linked research and data firm of Future Forward USA Action, a super political action committee (PAC) that was designated as the main super PAC supporting the re-election of President Joe Biden and later the unsuccessful campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris following Biden’s withdrawal from the race. 1 2 A key program of the organization is Blue Rose Research, a data research project that aims to assist Democratic campaigns and left-of-center causes with ad spending and targeting decisions through data modeling. 3

In July 2024, Open Labs polling showing that President Biden trailed former President Donald Trump was leaked to the press, causing questions about President Biden’s electability within Democratic Party circles and contributing to Biden’s ultimate withdrawal from the race. 1 Open Labs was paid more than $1,000,000 for its services from the Democratic National Committee between 2022 and 2023.  4 During the 2024 election cycle, Open Labs received at least $759,707 from Future Forward, and it was noted that the founders of Future Forward were employed by Open Labs. 5 6

History and Leadership

Open Labs was co-founded by Jon Fromowitz, a senior advisor for paid media on the 2020 presidential campaign of former Vice President Joe Biden (D). Prior to founding Open Labs, Fromowitz worked as deputy director of opinion research for the 2012 re-election campaign of President Barack Obama (D) and wrote advertisements supporting Democratic Party campaigns across the United States. 7

As of July 2024, Aaron Strauss is the program director of Open Labs. 8 Strauss’s LinkedIn biography describes his profession as “using science to stop [former president] Trump.” Prior to joining Open Labs, Strauss worked at the Analyst Institute, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the Mellman Group, the Voting Information Project, the unsuccessful 2016 presidential campaign of former U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY), and the unsuccessful 2004 presidential campaign of former Vermont Governor Howard Dean (D). Strauss also works as a freelance data scientist. 9

Ishanee Parikh has been the creative director of Future Forward USA Action/OpenLabs since 2020. She is a co-founder of left-of-center Blue Sky Strategy and previously worked in the administration of former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D). 10

Data specialist David Shor works for OpenLabs and is the head of data science for Blue Rose Research. He left Civis Analytics after saying violent protests after the death of George Floyd would hurt Democrats politically. 4 Shor describes himself as a socialist and has been active in Democratic politics and organizations since working on Barack Obama’s 2012 presidential campaign. Since 2020, Shor’s work at Blue Rose Research has centered around building models to predict election results in an effort to aid Democratic campaigns. 11

Activities

Open Labs LLC is the data and research arm of Future Forward USA Action, a leading Democratic Party super political action committee (PAC), 1 which was designated as the main independent expenditure group supporting the re-election of President Joe Biden through television advertisements. 4 Open Labs conducts polling and message-testing for various Democratic Party-aligned groups including the 501(c)(4) associated with Future Forward USA Action. 12

Although the firm is not particularly well-known or transparent, Democratic Party circles trust Open Labs’ “data-driven memos” and often share them with clients and party strategists. 12 In 2020, Open Labs spent more than $175,000,000 in support of the presidential campaign of former Vice President Joe Biden (D). 7

During the 2020 election cycle, Future Forward USA Action/OpenLabs was the largest outside spending organization in the race. 7 Despite its strong ties to the Democratic Party, 2 Open Labs does not seek publicity and does not share its client list. 13

In July 2024, Open Labs polling showing that President Biden trailed former President Donald Trump was leaked to the press, causing questions about President Biden’s electability within Democratic Party circles and contributing to Biden’s ultimate withdrawal from the race. 1 Open Labs was paid more than $1,000,000 for its services from the Democratic National Committee between 2022 and 2023. 4 During the 2024 election cycle, Open Labs received at least $759,707 from Future Forward, and it was noted that the founders of Future Forward were employed by Open Labs. 5

A New York Times profile described the founders of Future Forward, who also hold leadership roles at Blue Rose Research and Open Labs as a “close-knit network of Ph.D.s who have ascended in the party by displaying encyclopedic knowledge of randomized-controlled trials and political science literature.” 6

Blue Rose Research

Blue Rose Research is an arm of Open Labs LLC and is sometimes referred to as a dba name for the organization. The group is a data analysis project that aims to use computer models, artificial intelligence, and statistics to advise Democratic campaigns and organizations on how to target ad spending. The group stated that “For the 2022 US election, we used engineering and statistics to advise major progressive organizations on directing hundreds of millions of dollars to the right ads and states,” and that “We tested thousands of ads and talking points in the 2022 election cycle and partnered with orgs across the space to ensure that the most effective messages were deployed from the state legislative level all the way up to Senate and Gubernatorial races and spanning the issue advocacy space as well.” The group claimed that in 2022 they “were more accurate than public polling in identifying which races were close across the Senate, House, and Gubernatorial maps.” 14

The group states that it had over 40 software engineers, machine learning engineers, and “social scientists” on staff with the mission of making “high quality research and testing widely available for the progressive community.” The group uses artificial intelligence and Bayesian statistics to help organizations and campaigns decide where to spent political ad money, which demographics to target, and what messages to craft. 3

Blue Rose Research operates a testing library designed to measure the effectiveness of political talking points and ads in swaying voters to Democratic candidates and left-of-center causes. The group’s message testing library contains over 2,000 talking points across a wide range of issue areas and allows users to explore results across various subgroups like age, race, and ideology. The group restricts access to the library to “ensure our library stays within the progressive ecosystem.” 15

2024 Presidential Election Polling

In July 2024, Open Labs conducted an internal poll for the 2024 campaign of President Joe Biden that showed a sharp drop in President Biden’s favorability numbers following the first general-election debate with former President Donald Trump. 1 The leaked poll showed that Vice President Kamala Harris, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D), California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), and Secretary of the Department of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (D) polled ahead of President Biden in all battleground states in theoretical matchups with former President Trump. It also showed that unregistered voters were supporting former President Trump at higher rates than President Biden. 16

Following the release of the poll, Open Labs LLC director Aaron Strauss said that “blindly registering” nonvoters and getting them to the polls would be “distinctly aiding Trump’s quest for a personal dictatorship.” 17 Strauss’s memo also said that concerns about Biden’s age and splits among Democratic voters should worry the Biden campaign. 18 The July 2024 poll was in stark contrast to Open Labs’ September 2023 polling, which showed no difference in support for President Biden and other Democratic candidates in hypothetical election matchups against former President Trump. 19 18

Funding

Open Labs was paid more than $1,000,000 for its services from the Democratic National Committee between 2022 and 2023. 4

The company also conducts polling and message-testing for several Democratic Party-aligned groups, including the re-election campaign of President Joe Biden. Open Labs’ website does not seek publicity and does not publicly post its full client list. 20

References

  1. Brandon Lee and Jeannie Buamann. “Biden Plummets in Leaked Polls” What to Know in Washington.” Bloomberg Government July 3, 2024. Accessed July 4, 2024. https://about.bgov.com/news/biden-plummets-in-leaked-poll-what-to-know-in-washington/.
  2. Vennochi, Joan. “How much did Democrats and the press know about Biden’s decline before the debate?” Boston Globe. July 3, 2024. Accessed July 4, 2024. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/07/03/opinion/biden-democrats-media-debate/.
  3. “About.” Blue Rose Research. Accessed November 24, 2024. https://blueroseresearch.org/about/
  4. Eli Stokols and Lauren Egan. “Who’ll be Biden’s 2024 Pollster?” Politico. March 9, 2023. Accessed July 4, 2024. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2023/03/09/bidens-polling-questions-00086362.
  5. Fang, Lee. “Kamala Harris SuperPAC Spent Lavishly on Firms Owned by PAC Leadership.” November 13, 2024. https://www.leefang.com/p/kamala-harris-superpac-spent-lavishly
  6. Schleifer, Theodore, and Shane Goldmacher. “Inside the Secretive $700 Million Ad-Testing Factory for Kamala Harris.” The New York Times, October 17, 2024. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/us/elections/future-forward-kamala-harris-ads.html.
  7. Creative that works.” Blue Sky Strategy. Accessed July 4, 2024. https://blueskystrategy.com/.
  8. “Praise for Reinventing Political Advertising.” Hal Malchow LinkedIn Post. Posted February 2024. Accessed July 4, 2024. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/halmalchow_praise-for-reinventing-political-advertising-activity-7157767767981514752-v3L-/.
  9.  Aaron Strauss, PhD.” LinkedIn Profile. Accessed July 4, 2024. https://www.linkedin.com/in/aaron-strauss-ph-d-6141ab1/.
  10. “Ishanee Parikh.” LinkedIn Profile. Accessed July 4, 2024. https://www.linkedin.com/in/ishanee-parikh-83879323/.
  11. Klein, Ezra. “David Shor Is Telling Democrats What They Don’t Want to Hear”. The New York Times. October 8, 2021. Accessed November 24, 2024. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/08/opinion/democrats-david-shor-education-polarization.html
  12. Griffing, Alex. “Leaked Polling From Democratic Firm Spells Disaster in Swing States For Biden.” MediaIte. July 2, 202.4 Accessed July 4, 2024. https://www.mediaite.com/politics/leaked-polling-from-democratic-firm-spells-disaster-in-swing-states-for-biden/.
  13. KIlander, Gustaf. “Biden support nosedives in swing states after disastrous debate against Trump.” https://uk.news.yahoo.com/biden-support-nosedives-swing-states-220030519.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAE56yDOK0AZ54R3qQN-oxzlcNSQgJZ5LvsrDENBQjmeujkATeZ_0_obCrdNVCz6pksm7c8G0BfEYu6L5b1lzqQFH0qUJ7oxtGtUqqqXoKhV3El3teU2wTR1etmfiuavoQSEXUCRb7byOujFyEg0FqF35NIquWegnN5K3ByAi9_Vv.
  14. “Blue Rose Research is hiring (yet again)!” Columbia University Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science. October 27, 2023. Accessed November 24, 2024. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/10/27/blue-rose-research-is-hiring-yet-again/
  15. “Blue Rose Message Testing Library.” Arena. Accessed November 24, 2024. https://arena.run/tool/blue-rose-message-testing-library
  16. Fung, Katherine. “Donald Trump Wants Joe Biden to Stay in the Race.” Newsweek. July 3, 2024. Accessed July 4, 2024. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-wants-joe-biden-stay-race-1920819.
  17. Howell, Thomas Jr. “Democrats fear typical registration efforts might backfire, boost Trump.” Washington Times. April 2, 2024. Accessed July 4, 2024. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/apr/2/democrats-fear-typical-registration-efforts-might-/.
  18. Korte, Gregory. “Biden’s favourability numbers fall in leaked democratic polling memo: Puck.” Business Standard. July 3, 2024. Accessed July 4, 2024. https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/biden-s-favourability-numbers-fall-in-leaked-democratic-polling-memo-puck-124070300061_1.html.
  19. [1] Griffing, Alex. “Leaked Polling From Democratic Firm Spells Disaster in Swing States For Biden.” MediaIte. July 2, 202.4 Accessed July 4, 2024. https://www.mediaite.com/politics/leaked-polling-from-democratic-firm-spells-disaster-in-swing-states-for-biden/.
  20. Hamby, Peter. “Biden Plunges in Swing States in Leaked Post-Debate Poll.” Puck. July 2, 2024. Accessed July 4, 2024. https://archive.md/PfPYd.
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