Conservatives for National Popular Vote is a right-leaning organization that favors states joining National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) that would supersede state-by-state elections for presidential electors, contending that the United States is a center-right country and that a Republican would win the popular vote. ¹

Opponents of the group have claimed it was started with the help of a Colorado Democratic operative. ²

The leadership team includes Patrick Rosenstiel, who heads the Institute for Research on Presidential Elections, a sister organization of the advocacy group National Popular Vote, and is the CEO of Ainsley Shea, a public relations firm in Saint Paul, Minnesota. ^{3 4}

Background

Conservatives for National Popular Vote is an ostensibly right-leaning organization that favors states joining the anti-electoral college National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC). States that join the compact pledge to award their states’ Electoral College votes to the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of which candidate wins that state. The compact would only kick in when enough states join to award the needed 270 electoral votes to win a presidential election. The initiative is primarily supported by the Institute for Research on Presidential Elections, a 501(c)(3) education group and its 501(c)(4) advocacy arm, National Popular Vote. ⁵

The organization is not active on Twitter and as of April 2023 had not made a Facebook post since July 26, 2021. ⁶ However, the organization’s website features written testimony before the Michigan state legislature from March 2023. ⁷

As of 2023, Conservatives for National Popular Vote headed its website with a quote from former President Donald Trump on the show “Fox & Friends”: “I would rather have the popular vote because it’s, to me, it’s much easier to win the popular vote.” ⁸ Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but was elected President by winning the Electoral College in state-by-state elections. ⁹

Controversies

After the organization’s founding in February 2020, the pro-Electoral College group Save Our States said the organization was created in Colorado by a Democratic political operative named Rachel Gordon, listed as the registered agent in the organization’s filing with the state. ^{10 11}

While Conservatives for the National Popular Vote is making an ostensibly conservative case for the compact, the bulk of known donations to National Popular Vote have come from left-leaning donors such as the Jennifer and Jonathan Allan Soros Foundation, the Stephen M. Silberstein Foundation, the Sandler Foundation, and the Tides Foundation. ¹²

Arguments

As of early 2023, the compact had been adopted by 16 states with a combined 195 electoral votes, all Democratic-leaning states in presidential elections. ¹³ Over the years, bills to join the compact have passed in one chamber of the state Legislature of Republican-leaning states of Arkansas, North Carolina, and Oklahoma, as well as battleground states of Michigan and Arizona. ¹⁴

The organization contends that the United States is a center-right country and that if enough states join the compact then the vote of every pro-life voter, every pro-gun voter, and every limited government voter will be counted in a presidential race. ¹⁵

Conservatives for National Popular Vote emphasized that a shift in 59,393 votes in Ohio in 2004 would have elected Democrat John Kerry as president despite President George W. Bush’s 3 million vote national lead. ¹⁶

Conservatives for National Popular Vote attempts to allay fears that a popular vote would harm rural areas, arguing the population of the 100 largest cities is 59.8 million, about the same as the population in rural America of 59.5 million. ¹⁷

The organization further argues none of the 10 most rural states are battlegrounds, while rural areas in larger states are disadvantaged by the winner-take-all system in 48 states. ¹⁸

The group tries to reassure conservatives that the plan would adhere to Article 2, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution that says states can choose on their own how to award presidential electors. The group cites the 1892 U.S. Supreme Court case of McPherson v. Blacker that determined state legislatures have plenary authority to appoint electors. ¹⁹

In Michigan, several former Republican lawmakers, and advocates aligned themselves with Conservatives for National Popular Vote and testified in favor of joining the compact to the state House of Representatives Committee on Elections in March 2023. Those who testified to the legislature included former Michigan Speaker of the House Chuck Perricone; former state Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville, and former state Rep. Kim Meltzer, currently the clerk of the Charter Township of Clinton. Hillsdale College professor Gary Wolfram also spoke to the House committee on behalf of Conservatives for National Popular Vote. ^{20 21}

Other Michigan Republicans signed onto a press release by Conservatives for National Popular Vote as supporting joining the compact. These included former Michigan House Speaker Kevin Cotter, former Senate Majority Leaders Mike Bishop, Dick Posthumus, and Ken Sikkema. Former Michigan GOP state Sens. Mike Green and Phil Pavlov also signed. The release also named former Michigan Republican Party Chairman Saul Anuzis, who is also on the leadership team of the National Popular Vote group. Former Michigan Republican Party Chairwoman Laura Cox also signed. ²²

Leadership

Patrick Rosenstiel is on the leadership team of Conservatives for National Popular Vote. ²³ Rosenstiel is the CEO of Ainsley Shea, a Twin Cities-based public affairs firm and the chairman of the Institute for Research on Presidential Elections. ^{24 25} Rosenstiel is also a member of the Federalist Society, a legal group associated with the originalist school of legal interpretation adopted by many conservatives. ²⁶ He was previously regional political director of the Steve Forbes 1996 presidential campaign. He ran the campaign for the California School Voucher Initiative. He also conducted the campaign to gain public support for the Senate to confirm John Roberts and Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court during the George W. Bush administration. ²⁷

Dennis Lennox is on the leadership team of the group. He worked on the Ted Cruz 2016 presidential campaign. ²⁸ In 2010, he lost a Republican primary for the state House of Representatives. ²⁹ He is an opinion writer who has appeared frequently in the Detroit News and Christian Post. ^{30 31}

Kent Kaiser is a former board member of the Minnesota Christian Coalition. A professor, he has been a faculty adviser for campus chapters of Students Supporting Israel, the Intercollegiate Studies Institute, Young Americans for Freedom, Students for Liberty, and Students for a Conservative Voice. ³² Kaiser began working as a communications counselor for public relations firm Ainsley Shea, run by Rosenstiel, in November 2018. He is formerly the executive director for the Rosenstiel-founded Trade Alliance to Promote Prosperity. He is a lecturer at the University of Minnesota, and a former project manager for the National Association of Secretaries of State. ³³

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