World Weather Attribution (WWA) is an international research organization that publishes reports that claim to quantify how climate change caused by humans affected the severity of weather events. According to Columbia Climate School, it uses “counterfactual” models based on a model of an “imaginary” world, using limited data. ¹ Its research is used by major news publications to associate severe weather events with climate change, including the Weather Channel, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), and the Washington Post. ^{2 3 4}

Background

World Weather Attribution is a nonprofit research organization that was founded in 2014 by Friederike Otto, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, and Climate Central. It uses models to estimate how much of the severity of a weather event may be attributed to climate change and advocate for environmentalist policy that it claims its models show would have reduced the severity of weather events. ⁵

WWA publishes its research within days or weeks of major weather events, attempting to quantify the association with the severity of the event and what it describes as “human-induced climate change.” It uses the trends of its models to justify associating excess deaths that occur during extreme weather events, such as excess drowning deaths during a heatwave. ^{5 6}

WWA receives funding from the Grantham Institute, European Climate Foundation, and Bezos Earth Foundation. ⁵

Controversies

Research Process Criticisms

In 2023, Spain’s Science Media Centre published an analysis of World Weather Attribution’s research methods that states that the attribution studies WWA performs are unable to accurately identify the cause of a weather event’s increased severity, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The analysis notes that NOAA also states that so-called global warming and climate change cannot be identified as having “caused” a weather event as there are too many factors with an undetermined influence on weather events. ^{7 8}

Science Media Centre also noted that WWA does not follow peer review processes and instead claims that its methodology aligns with peer review processes and thereby asserts itself as authoritative. It does state that it can potentially quantify the likelihood of select extreme weather events occurring, but because of unquantifiable factors outside of human derived carbon emissions it cannot guarantee the accuracy that the emissions specifically influenced the severity of the event. ⁸

By circumventing peer review processes, WWA claims it is able to publish more timely reports, which it states it does to be able to more effectively advocate for environmentalist policy while weather events are prominent topics in the media. ⁹

Association with Media Funders

In October 2024, the Washington Free Beacon reported that Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos made a $10 million grant to World Weather Attribution in 2022 through his nonprofit Bezos Earth Fund. It also reports that since 2021, the Washington Post had cited WWA in over 70 posts, noting that WWA’s research is subject to controversy as news outlets do not note that it is “non-peer-reviewed,” and the Free Beacon reported on experts who described WWA’s research as “rushed, partisan, and ‘incomplete.’” The Free Beacon also stated that there are concerns over conflicts of interests as WWA receives funding from owners of media organizations which uses the research to support left-of-center reporting on climate change. ⁴

Leadership

Friederike Otto is a co-founder and lead scientist for World Weather Attribution. ³ Otto is also a senior lecturer at WWA funder Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment and works as a physicist at Free University Berlin. She previously worked as the director of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford and has served on intergovernmental climate projects in Europe. ¹⁰

1. “Attribution Science: Linking Climate Change to Extreme Weather.” State of the Planet. Accessed November 4, 2024. https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/10/04/attribution-science-linking-climate-change-to-extreme-weather/.
2. “Scientists Say Climate Change Made Hurricane Milton More Destructive.” The Weather Channel, October 12, 2024. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-10-12-climate-change-made-hurricane-milton-destruction-worse.
3. Rowlatt, Justin. “Deadliest Weather Made Worse by Climate Change, Report Says.” BBC News, October 31, 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxvnk10xz2o.
4. Catenacci, Thomas, and Chuck Ross. “WAPO’s Favorite Environmental Group Uses ‘political’ Research to Link Climate Change to Natural Disasters. It’s Also Bankrolled by WAPO Owner Jeff Bezos.” Washington Free Beacon, October 21, 2024. https://freebeacon.com/media/wapos-favorite-environmental-group-uses-political-research-to-link-climate-change-to-natural-disasters-its-also-bankrolled-by-wapo-owner-jeff-bezos/
5. “World Weather Attribution.” World Weather Attribution header. Accessed November 4, 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/about/.
6. “Without Human-Caused Climate Change Temperatures of 40°C in the UK Would Have Been Extremely Unlikely.” World Weather Attribution header. Accessed November 4, 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/without-human-caused-climate-change-temperatures-of-40c-in-the-uk-would-have-been-extremely-unlikely/.
7. Lindsey, Rebecca. “Extreme Event Attribution: The Climate Versus Weather Blame Game.” NOAA Climate.gov, December 15, 2016. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/extreme-event-attribution-climate-versus-weather-blame-game.
8. “‘blame It on Climate Change’: What Attribution Studies Tell Us and What They Don’t.” SMC España. Accessed November 4, 2024. https://sciencemediacentre.es/en/blame-it-climate-change-what-attribution-studies-tell-us-and-what-they-dont.
9. “FAQs.” World Weather Attribution header. Accessed November 4, 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/faqs/.
10. “Dr Friederike Otto.” Imperial. Accessed November 4, 2024. https://profiles.imperial.ac.uk/f.otto.