Lake Research Partners is a political polling and research firm founded in 1995 by Celinda Lake. The firm is based in Washington, D.C. and has worked with numerous left-leaning organizations and Democratic political candidates. ^{1 2}

Clients of Lake Research Partners have included the presidential campaigns of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Bill Clinton; the Planned Parenthood Federation of America; the AFL-CIO; Communications Workers of America; and George Soros’ Open Society Foundations. ³

Background

Lake Research Partners was founded by Celinda Lake in 1995. Lake had previously worked as a pollster for the 1992 Clinton-Gore presidential campaign and as a partner of another firm called Greenberg-Lake. She was also the political director of the Women’s Campaign Fund. The firm bills itself as among the most accurate Democratic polling firm as well as a “consistently progressive” firm. The firm’s website also states that it has a screening process for potential clients and that it only works on behalf of “pro-choice candidates, labor-friendly clients, and good corporate citizens.” ^{2 1}

The firm works on behalf of Democratic political campaigns and left-leaning issue advocacy group, as well as large grant making foundations. The firm’s polling is conducting by a team of several employees that include one or more partners and several junior analysts, employing phone surveys on landline and cell phones, online panels, focus groups, and several other polling and research methods. The firm also engages in social media research including “social listening” and content analysis. ^{1 4}

Activity

Lake Research Partners is graded by FiveThirtyEight as an A/B graded firm, a provisional grade given to some smaller pollsters. Most of the firm’s polling is not publicly released and the grade from FiveThirtyEight as of October 2022 considers only 12 publicly released polls from the firm between 2006 and 2020. Polls from the firm taken within 21 days of elections are used to determine accuracy via the FiveThirtyEight system, and Lake Research partners had an 83 percent accuracy rating by that metric. Some recent congressional polls have been overly favorable to Democrats, including a 2018 poll showing Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-AZ) in a tied race that she ultimately won by nearly 5 percentage points, and a 2020 poll showing Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA) up by only 4 points in a race he ultimately won by nearly 12. ⁵

Clients

Clients of Lake Research Partners include many notable Democratic politicians, Democratic Party organizations, left-of-center advocacy groups, and left-of-center grantmaking foundations. Among the clients listed on the firm’s website include the Democratic National Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, President Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaigns, President Bill Clinton, former U.S. Senator Carol Moseley Braun (D-IL), the late former U.S. Senator Harry Reid (D-NV), Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D), Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), the AFL-CIO, American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), American Federation of Teachers (AFT), Communications Workers of America (CWA), Change to Win, National Education Association, U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), Citizen Action, League of Conservation Voters, NARAL Pro-Choice America, Annie E. Casey Foundation, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, Ford Foundation, Open Society Foundations, and the Atlantic Philanthropies. ³

1. Home.” Lake Research Partners. Accessed October 13, 2022. https://www.lakeresearch.com/
2. “Celinda Lake.” Women’s Media Center. Accessed October 13, 2022. https://womensmediacenter.com/shesource/expert/celinda-lake
3. “Clients.” Lake Research Partners. Accessed October 13, 2022. https://www.lakeresearch.com/clients
4. “Our Approach.” Lake Research Partners. Accessed October 13, 2022. https://www.lakeresearch.com/our-approach
5. “Lake Research Partners.” FiveThirtyEight. Accessed October 13, 2022. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/lake-research-partners/